Many US-related events are planned today. In economic statistics, the number of US ADP employees in July and the US ISM non-manufacturing business index in July will be released. Financial officials will speak at the event of Fed President Bullard St. Louis and Fed Vice-Chair Clarida on the outlook for US monetary policy.
The ADP Employment Statistics announces an increase or decrease in the number of employees in the private sector. The forecast for July this time is 683,000, which is within the margin of error from the previous increase of 692,000 in June. Since the US employment statistics will be released on Friday, it will be positioned as a prelude to that. However, economists have pointed out that the figures in the preliminary report are not closely related to the number of US non-farm payrolls on Friday, so unless there is a significant increase or decrease, it will not have much impact on the market. Maybe.
The ISM non-manufacturing business index is expected to be 60.5, which is expected to rise slightly from 60.1 in June last time. It is easy to pay attention to the contents of employment items as well as the numbers in the headline. The manufacturing index released earlier was lower than last time. However, employment items have recovered to the level of 50. The image is that the figures of the manufacturing industry are reflected in the trends of external demand and the world economy. This non-manufacturing industry is thought to reflect domestic demand and US consumption trends.
The lecture by Vice-Chairman Clarida is also noteworthy. The theme is a straightforward game about the outlook for US monetary policy. At the latest US FOMC, discussions were held on the recovery of the US economy and the reduction of the pace of bond purchases, and there was a positive aspect of the exit strategy. On the other hand, at the Powell press conference, he was impressed with his cautious stance, pointing out that the recovery of employment is still in progress and that the re-expansion of the new corona infection is increasing uncertainty. How about Vice-Chairman Clarida?
Given that the US tapering conditions are a strong recovery in employment, it is certain that the ADP employment statistics are a particularly responsive indicator.
If it deviates from the expectation, it may move significantly depending on the number, so be careful.