The ECB board is expected to leave monetary policy such as policy rates unchanged. However, there is a possibility that future policies such as QE expansion, strengthening, and extension will be suggested, and attention will be paid to the post-Board meeting of EC President Governor Lagarde. EU summit is scheduled to be held tomorrow, and it seems likely that there will be a strong push from Lagarde to the agreement on the reconstruction fund. According to the latest report by the British FT, “The ECB governor, Lagarde ECB, will suspend the additional stimulus measures and the ECB will examine the data.”
The EU Reconstruction Fund is a huge support measure of 750 billion euros, so there are great expectations of the market. However, although talks began with the French and German prime ministers, orders have been placed from northern countries, such as the Netherlands, who are strict about fiscal discipline. The composition of the conflict with southern countries, such as Spain and Italy, who are aiming for active financing (wasting? However, German Chancellor Merkel said he would like to form an agreement by the summer vacation, and there is little room for postponing the agreement.
Under such circumstances, pressure and expectations for position adjustment before the event and early agreement are likely to increase. Timing to keep an eye on for the Euro market
The conference of the President of ECB Lagarde needs attention. It is assumed here that the EUR will move significantly.
Currently, the power balance in 15 minutes is
CAD> JPY = USD> EUR> AUD = NZD = CHF> GBP