Both data are for April, when the effects of the new coronavirus are expected to be strong. According to US employment statistics, which has received a lot of attention, the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.4% in March to 16% in April. The number of employees in the non-farm sector is expected to drop by 22 million, compared with a decrease of 701,000 in March.
Although the impact of the numbers will be unprecedented, it seems that the market has already been woven in with reference to prior forecasts. The number of new unemployment insurance applications filed for US since March has already exceeded 30 million, and it is likely that 22 million will be within the expected range.
It may be the Canadian dollar that has the greatest impact. According to the Canadian employment statistics in April, the unemployment rate was 18.1%, which is expected to further deteriorate from the previous 7.8%. As for the number of employees, the effect of the new corona was already strong, with a decrease of 101.07 million as of March. It is expected that the number of people will decrease by 4 million this April. It is known that the trading volume of the Canadian dollar is relatively small in the G7 currency. Reactions to economic data are likely to be more sensitive than dollar-yen or euro-dollar. This is an event that trading participants should be aware of.
April Number of newly hired employees: -101.07 million last time, -400,000 expected
April unemployment rate last time 7.8% forecast 18.0%
April Changes in the number of employees in the non-agricultural sector [Monthly] Last time-701,000 people Forecast-220,000 people
April unemployment rate last time 4.4% forecast 16.0%
April average hourly wage [compared to the previous month] 0.4% last time 0.4% expected
April average hourly wage [Compared with the same month the year before] Previous 3.1% Forecast 3.3%
Depending on the numbers, Wednesday’s ADP employment statistics for the US
Considering that there was no big movement to that extent, the decline in stock prices etc. was limited tonight,
It is assumed that the probability of buying and entering is higher.
As US stocks rise, it is assumed that the US dollar is relatively easy to sell and the EUR, AUD, NZD, etc. are relatively easy to buy. EUR, which had been persistently trading around 1.0800 yesterday, is already rebounding.
As for Canada, it is difficult to predict how much communication will come out, so
Pay attention to what kind of movement it will be.
Currently no position. Waiting for employment statistics.
Currently, the power balance in 15 minutes is
NZD ＞ CHF ＞ EUR ＞ JPY ＞ USD ＞ AUD ＞ CAD ＞ GBP