FOMC Passed with Limited USD Rebound; Focus Shifts to BOE Policy Decision
💱 FOMC Passed with Limited USD Rebound; Focus Shifts to BOE Policy Decision 🏦 FOMC Outcome & Market Reaction The Federal Reserve delivered a 25bp rate cut, fully in line with expectations. The dot plot signaled two more cuts by year-end, matching market consensus. Chair Powell emphasized a balanced focus on employment and inflation, maintaining […]
🌍 Markets Brace for FOMC: Focus on Cut Size and Forward Guidance
🌍 Markets Brace for FOMC: Focus on Cut Size and Forward Guidance 🏦 Key Points Tonight’s FOMC decision (announcement due 3:00 JST, Sept 18) is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut. A minority still see risk of a 50bp cut, though this is viewed as politically driven and could raise concerns over Fed […]
📌 Focus on Tomorrow’s U.S. FOMC; Today’s Watch Is U.S. Retail Sales
📌 Focus on Tomorrow’s U.S. FOMC; Today’s Watch Is U.S. Retail Sales 🏦 Central Bank Week Overview This week brings a cluster of key policy announcements: FOMC and Bank of Canada (rate cuts expected, –25bp baseline), BOE and BOJ (widely seen on hold). Last week’s ECB hold decision reinforced policy divergence, which tends to fuel […]
🌏 Calm Start to the Week, Eyes on NY Fed Manufacturing Index
🌏 Calm Start to the Week, Eyes on NY Fed Manufacturing Index 📌 Tokyo & London Market Moves With Tokyo’s bond market closed for a holiday, FX trading remained subdued. USD/JPY: Fell from 147.80 to 147.37, then stabilized around 147.40–50. EUR/USD: Moved between 1.1716–1.1744 before settling near 1.1730. GBP/USD: Rose from 1.3539 to 1.3599 and […]
💱 FX Seeks Direction Ahead of Next Week’s Policy Meetings
💱 FX Seeks Direction Ahead of Next Week’s Policy Meetings Current Market Conditions In Tokyo trading, USD/JPY hovered in the 147.20–147.50 range, EUR/USD traded in the low 1.17s, and GBP/USD stayed in the mid-to-high 1.35s. Dollar buying showed a slight edge, though overall trend clarity remains lacking. In early London trade, USD/JPY briefly touched 147.98, […]
📊 U.S. August CPI and Weekly Jobless Claims
📊 U.S. August CPI and Weekly Jobless Claims CPI (Consumer Price Index) MoM: +0.4% (double the previous month’s pace) YoY: +2.9% (+0.2pp vs prior month, highest since January 2025) Core CPI (ex-food & energy): +0.3% MoM, +3.1% YoY (in line with forecasts) Key Drivers: Housing +0.4% (accounting for ~⅓ of total increase) Food +0.5% Energy […]
💱 Focus on U.S. CPI and ECB Meeting as Markets Gauge Rate-Cut Outlook
💱 Focus on U.S. CPI and ECB Meeting as Markets Gauge Rate-Cut Outlook ✅ Key Drivers U.S. CPI (August) The softer-than-expected U.S. PPI release reignited expectations of disinflation. If CPI also prints weak, speculation for a September Fed rate cut will strengthen further. According to CME FedWatch, current probabilities for the September FOMC are: 25bp […]
📈 U.S. PPI Scenarios and FX Impact
📈 U.S. PPI Scenarios and FX Impact 🔽 Below expectations (disinflationary signal) Stronger rate-cut expectations, accelerated dollar selling. USD/JPY: Risk of decline into the 146.30–146.20 zone. EUR/USD: Potential test above 1.1750. ➡️ In line with expectations (neutral outcome) Largely priced in, market reaction limited. USD/JPY: Range-bound around 147.00. EUR/USD: Sideways near 1.1700. 🔼 Above expectations […]
📊 Focus on U.S. Employment Benchmark Revision — Dollar Selling Pressure Persists Amid Nervous Market
📊 Focus on U.S. Employment Benchmark Revision — Dollar Selling Pressure Persists Amid Nervous Market A key event for the U.S. labor market is approaching.Later today, the annual benchmark revision of U.S. nonfarm payrolls will be released. Last year, the data was revised down by roughly 820,000 jobs, shocking the market. This year, another sharp […]
📊 Market Environment Summary: Dollar Selling vs. Political Risks
📊 Market Environment Summary: Dollar Selling vs. Political Risks 🇺🇸 United States: Growing Pressure on the Dollar Last week’s U.S. jobs report came in weaker than expected, cementing expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC. Some market participants are even speculating on the possibility of a 50bp move.If tomorrow’s annual revisions to the […]