US ADP April Employment Change Preview: Job losses are known unknowns

Both US stocks and US dollars
Assumed to move significantly in US ADP employment statistics tonight.

  • Private payrolls to lose a decade’s worth of jobs in one month.
  • ADP is the key indicator for non-farm payrolls on Friday.
  • Have initial claims given market enough warning on the scope of the job losses?
  • Dollar is vulnerable to worse than forecast report

The track of the coronavirus pandemic in the US shifts to new labor statistics this week but the main question is not the job losses themselves, which are already well documented, but how markets will react to known information in new packages.

Private payrolls at Automatic Data Processing (ADP) are forecast to drop 20 million in April.  To say this is the largest decline in history is to understate the impact.  It took 108 months, nine years for those same companies whose employment books ADP keeps to amass that many new employees. In one month nine years of labor market success disappeared.

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